Ecuador vs Italy: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Bradley Walker

Italy look to record their fourth win in six matches when they take on Ecuador in New Jersey on Sunday. 

The two sides meet in an international friendly ahead of their continental tournaments in the summer. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time at the Red Bull Arena.

Recent Form 

Ecuador 

Felix Sanchez's side head to the USA after recording a 2-0 home win against Guatemala on Friday. The result extended their unbeaten run to six games, with Ecuador emerging victorious in four of them.

Ecuador also sit fifth in the CONMEBOL rankings as they look to secure qualification for the 2026 World Cup. Their six matches so far have seen an average of 1.83 points per game (W3, D2, L1), with Ecuador finding themselves one point above five-time World Cup winners Brazil. 

They have fared much better on home soil, though, averaging 2.33 points per game after winning two of their opening three matches. On away turf, Ecuador have only averaged 1.33 points per game (W1, D1, L1). 

Overall, the Ecuadorians have an expected goal (xG) tally of just 0.97 during World Cup qualifying - a figure severely hampered by their attacking form on the road; despite an average xG of 1.21 at home, Ecuador have averaged just 0.74 in their three away matches. 

Their actual goals scored tally makes for even worse reading; one goal per game has been scored at home, compared to 0.67 on the road with an overall average of 0.83.

Ecuador have performed well defensively, though. Despite an average expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.02, they've conceded just 0.5 goals overall. They've also kept clean sheets in three of their six matches during World Cup qualifying so far. 

Italy

Since Luciano Spalletti took over as manager in August, Italy have won four of their seven matches. Their latest came in a 2-1 victory over Venezuela in Florida on Thursday, making it three matches unbeaten since a 3-1 away defeat to England in October. 

Like Ecuador, Italy have struggled on the road compared to their home form. During EURO 2024 qualifying, Italy averaged 2.25 points per game at home (W3, L1) but only 1.25 away (W1, D2, L1). They also scored twelve on home soil but could only manage four on their travels. 

Nevertheless, the Italians secured automatic qualification for the summer's tournament and averaged an overall xG of 1.66 across their eight games, with an average of two goals scored. They also performed well defensively, averaging an xGA of 0.85 overall, though they did concede 1.13 goals.

Italy's games also featured a lot of goalscoring action, averaging a total of 3.13 during qualifying. 

 

Prediction

Despite Ecuador's good form in recent games, the away side on the moneyline makes the most sense here. Spalletti has steadied the ship since taking over from Roberto Mancini last year, and though Italy have been shipping more goals than they'd have liked recently, Ecuador's poor goalscoring form suggests the South Americans won't be taking advantage of any defensive mishaps on Sunday. 

Italy's EURO 2024 qualifying campaign also suggests more goals could be in store this weekend; four of their last five in all competitions have totalled at least three goals, while three saw the ball hit the net on four occasions. 

OddsNow's Picks: Italy to win (6/5 @ BetUK); Over 2.5 goals scored (5/4 @ bet365)

 

 

 

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