Chelsea vs Everton: Betting Odds & Prediction

Chelsea host Everton on Monday evening in the Premier League in a pivotal match for the relegation battle.

The visitors have been given a further two-point deduction for failing to comply with Premier League profit and sustainability rules which has left them only two places and two points above the relegation zone. Everton’s point deduction may yet be subject to change as the club look to appeal the decision.

The hosts are still clinging onto hope of qualifying for European football, but now face a difficult challenge after failing to take maximum points from recent must-win matches. Kick-off is set for 8pm at Stamford Bridge.

Recent Form

Chelsea

The hosts have become much harder to beat recently, remaining unbeaten in their last seven league games and their last five home games in all competitions. Chelsea were moving ever closer to the European football qualification places, until they drew 2-2 with a struggling Burnley side and once again drew 2-2 just two games later against bottom-placed Sheffield United in their last match.

Chelsea have performed better at home this season, taking 1.67 points per game at Stamford Bridge as opposed to only 1.27 points per game on the road. This is partly due to their attacking record at home, with Chelsea exceeding their expected goal (xG) tally of 1.77 in home matches and netting an impressive average of 1.93 goals per home game. Cole Palmer is being labelled by many as one of the signings of the season and will be Chelsea’s main goal threat in this match, scoring eleven league goals at Stamford Bridge so far this season.

Matches at Stamford Bridge have seen an average of 3.6 goals per game this season, as Chelsea score in high amounts but also concede frequently. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally is 1.39, which they have greatly exceeded by conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game in home matches. Mauricio Pochettino’s side have kept a clean sheet in only 20% of their games at the Bridge.

Everton

The visitors’ form has seen a recent upturn, as the Toffees secured a point in a 1-1 away draw against Newcastle. Building on this momentum, Everton put an end to a thirteen-game winless streak in the league with a crucial 1-0 victory over relegation rivals Burnley in their latest fixture.

Scoring goals has been a major problem for Sean Dyche’s side who have failed to score in 38% of their away matches. They have created an expected goal (xG) tally of 1.29 in away matches, which they have failed to match by netting an average of only one goal per game. Everton have faced challenges with finding a consistent goal scorer this season, as both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and new signing Beto have struggled to maintain form and confidence.

However, there's a glimmer of hope as Calvert-Lewin recently found the back of the net twice in his last two matches. This resurgence could serve as the much-needed catalyst for Everton to match their expected goal (xG) statistics.

The Toffees have also struggled with their defensive record on the road, despite being relatively solid at Goodison Park. Dyche’s side have an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.54 in away matches, which they have slightly bettered by conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game in away matches.

Prediction

The bookmakers favour Chelsea to win in this fixture, and although we expect the same, it’s no foregone conclusion with Chelsea dropping points to relegation battling sides and the return fixture ending 2-0 to Everton earlier this season. 

Matches at Stamford Bridge often involve plenty of goals with Chelsea being so prolific and unstable defensively simultaneously, and despite Everton’s goalscoring issues this season this match may serve as a perfect opportunity for the Toffee’s to get more goals behind them with Calvert-Lewin building confidence. OddsNow expect another high-scoring match at the Bridge.

OddsNow's Picks: Chelsea to win (7/10 @ Betway); Over 3.5 goals scored (7/5 @ Paddypower)