Brighton vs AS Roma: Betting Odds & Prediction

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Written by: Bradley Walker

Roma head to Brighton and Hove Albion on the back of a 4-0 home victory in their Europa League round-of-sixteen first leg. 

Kick-off is set for 8pm local time on Thursday evening. 

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Brighton held an impressive Europa League record this season before travelling to Rome. Their six group stage fixtures saw them score ten goals and concede five, keeping four clean sheets in the process. Last week's defeat now leaves them with an average of 1.43 goals scored per match while conceding an average of 1.29. 

Brighton managed a total of ten shots in the first leg, five of which were on target. They also held a better passing accuracy (91%) compared to Roma (83%), while retaining 59% of possession across the 90 minutes. 

Defensive errors coupled with clinical finishing from Roma cost the English side dearly however, and leaves them with a seemingly impossible task to overturn the deficit from their first meeting. 

Brighton

Roberto De Zerbi's side returned to winning ways with a 1-0 home victory over Nottingham Forest on Sunday after a damaging defeat in the Italian capital last week. The win was Brighton's first in four games. 

The Seagulls' home record has been impressive in the Premier League this season, with Brighton averaging 1.93 points per match at the Amex (W7, D6, L1). They have also scored 28 while conceding just 16 on their home patch in the league. The victory over Forest made it 12 consecutive home games unbeaten.

Brighton also recorded two clean sheets in home victories over Ajax and Marseille on their way to finishing top of Group B in the Europa League. AEK Athens remain the only side to score at the Amex in Europe following their 3-2 victory over Brighton in matchday one. 

Brighton have slightly bettered their expected goal tally (xG) at home so far, scoring an average of two goals compared to their xG of 1.87. 

Games at the Amex have averaged a total of 3.14 goals in the Premier League this campaign.

Roma

Daniele De Rossi's side followed up the Brighton with a 2-2 draw away at Fiorentina in Serie A. The result leaves them in fifth behind Bologna who occupy the final Champions League spot in fourth. 

Despite winning three of their last five away matches in Italy, Roma's overall form on the road has been shaky. They have averaged only 1.29 points per away match (W5, D3, L6), scoring 21 and conceding 20 during those fixtures. 

While they are slightly exceeding their expected goal (xG) tally of 1.23 with an average of 1.5 goals on the road, they are also conceding more goals than expected. Their expected goals against (xGA) tally sits at 1.32 per away match yet they've conceived an average of 1.43 so far. Roma have also kept clean sheets in just 14% of their league matches on the road, and have failed to score in 29%. 

Their away form in Europe doesn't make for positive reading either. Roma have won only once on the road this season - a 2-1 victory over Sheriff in September. They draw 1-1 with Servette and Feyenoord, the latter in the play-offs, while also suffering a 2-0 away loss at Slavia Prague in November. 

The Italian side's away visits have averaged a total of 2.93 goals in Serie A. 

Prediction

Despite Brighton's impressive home record and Roma's less than convincing exploits on the road, picking the home side to qualify for the quarter-finals would be ludicrous given the score of the first leg. 

Backing the home victory on the night might be a smart pick, however. De Zerbi's side have excelled on home soil, while Roma have struggled on their travels. Coupled with De Rossi likely rotating key players ahead of an important meeting with Sassuolo on Sunday, Brighton will be granted an opportunity to at least save face in front of their home fans on Thursday.

OddsNow's Pick: Brighton to win on the night with Roma to qualify (0.84/1 @ Ladbrokes)

 

 

 

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