Back this 2/1 Brighton vs Chelsea single
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Brighton and Chelsea face off once again on Friday evening just a week after their FA Cup fourth-round clash at the Amex.
Our tipster Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) runs you through all the key details ahead of kick-off on the south coast.
Last weekend's meeting between these two saw the Seagulls come from behind to secure a 2-1 victory over their London counterparts, overturning an early setback from Bart Verbruggen’s goalkeeping error.
Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma found the net to send Fabian Hurzeler's side through to round five.
Despite an early flurry of goals – two in 12 minutes, to be precise – the cup tie was not the most entertaining contest. Both teams struggled to generate meaningful attacking opportunities, with neither side managing to create a goal’s worth of xG.
However, looking at the broader picture, Chelsea have been involved in high-scoring games with remarkable consistency. Thirteen of their last 16 matches in all competitions have seen over 2.5 goals scored, while Brighton have surpassed that same line in 10 of their last 16 outings. As a result, the market has priced that same scenario here at best odds of 1/2, implying that it should land around two-thirds of the time. Tough to argue, really.
And while both sides started the season with plenty of promise, neither has capitalized fully on their early form. Brighton have won just two of their last 12 Premier League matches, while Chelsea have only managed two wins in their last eight. With inconsistency plaguing both teams, it’s hard to back either to triumph here with confidence.
Brighton edged past Chelsea to secure a spot in the next round of the FA Cup last weekend. (Photo credit: Alamy Images)
Combative Caicedo looks overpriced for a card
Given the trends and recent performances, the props market looks the way to go and with one standout selection for me – Moises Caicedo to be booked at 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
The Ecuadorian midfielder has gradually found his feet at Stamford Bridge, having joined from Brighton for an outrageous £115million fee 18 months ago.
Yet one trait has remained consistent at both clubs – a tendency to pick up bookings. Caicedo has received seven yellow cards in 27 appearances this season, including three in his last four games. That includes last week against Brighton, where he cynically brought down his old team-mate Tariq Lamptey.
In truth, he was fortunate to escape a booking in the other clash of that four-game run against West Ham, committing three or four fouls without punishment.
Caicedo is a naturally combative midfielder, unafraid to put himself about in physical battles. Only Wolves’ Joao Gomes has committed more fouls than him in the Premier League this season, and he ranks fifth across Europe’s top five leagues for total fouls committed.
If Brighton assert similar control in midfield as they did in the FA Cup last week, Caicedo will likely be forced into tactical fouls to break up play. At 2/1, the odds for a booking offer strong value to my eye.
Matthew Hill's Brighton vs Chelsea best bet
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Meet the Author
Head of Content
Matt has now been operating in the sports content and betting space for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with industry giants Betfred and LiveScore.
A qualified journalist, he began his career reporting on his beloved Carlisle United FC as a teenager and still follows the Blues avidly to this day, as much as life allows.
One of the keenest punters around, Matt is never shy of an opinion and builds the bulk of his betting portfolio around antepost football markets and PDC darts events.