Brentford vs Brighton: Betting Odds & Prediction

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Stuart Pike

Brentford bid to pull further away from the Premier League relegation places as they entertain mid-table Brighton & Hove Albion under the lights on Wednesday.

Kick-off at the Gtech Community Stadium is at 7.30pm UK time.

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Brentford

Brentford enter April on the back of an amazing finish to their match with Manchester United. Kristoffer Ajer’s 99th-minute equaliser earned the hosts a precious point shortly after Mason Mount’s opener. The Bees will feel hard done by not to have gained all three points; they hit the woodwork four times and registered an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.45 compared to United’s 1.33.

However, Brentford have collected just one win in their last eight home games in all competitions, although they have faced a tough series of games since a 3-2 defeat of Nottingham Forest in January. Despite this barren run, Thomas Frank’s side have once again collected the bulk of their points (17 out of 26) on their own turf, averaging 1.13 points per match. 

The Bees, who have amassed just two points from a possible 21 recently, have scored 1.67 goals per game at the Gtech - from an xG of 1.52. Their two goals conceded per home match compares unfavourably to an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.54.

No team has fewer home clean sheets than the Bees’ meagre one from 17 league and cup attempts, although they do usually score: no side had a higher BTTS ratio in home games than their 87% entering the midweek fixtures. There have been three or more goals scored in all but two of Brentford’s 15 home games and the 3.67 total goals per game in their stadium was the division’s fourth highest (entering this fixture round).

Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton began their season in scintillating fashion, winning five of their first six games and scoring 18 goals in the process. Since then, Roberto de Zerbi’s side have experienced mixed results in juggling their league campaign with their Europa League commitments, ended in March by Roma.

Brighton have earned their place in the top half of the table through being difficult to beat at the Amex Stadium - where they are unbeaten in 12 - but their away record has tailed off. Their only victory in their last nine away Premier League fixtures was a 5-0 hammering of basement side Sheffield United in February.

On Easter Sunday, they contributed hugely to a high-quality match at Anfield, grabbing an early lead against title-chasers Liverpool before eventually going down to a fourth defeat in five away games - and eighth in total - by a 2-1 scoreline. They average one point from each of their 15 away outings. 

Albion’s xG and xGA away from the Amex are both 1.49; however, while they have netted 1.53 goals per match on the road, their defence has shipped an average of two goals. Although they posted back-to-back 1-0 home wins in March, Brighton are more porous away; they have mustered just two clean sheets from 15 Premier League trips. There have been three or more goals in 73.3% of the Seagulls’ away fixtures.

The 53 goals scored by both sides in their away games is the joint fourth highest in the division - behind only Newcastle United, Luton Town and West Ham United (entering this round of matches).

Prediction

The bookmakers find it impossible to separate these two sides, with home advantage making Brentford marginal favourites (8/5 with Coral), compared to a best of 13/8 for the visitors (various). Given both teams’ inconsistency, the draw looks the best value moneyline bet.

We also anticipate a high-scoring affair between the two, given their respective offensive and defensive records so far. 

OddsNow's Picks: Draw (29/10 @ Betfair); Over 3+ goals scored (16/19 @ vbet)

 

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