Brentford vs Aston Villa: 6/1 tip for Gtech clash

 Brentford play host to top four-chasing Aston Villa in Saturday's evening kick-off. Can the Bees end their wait for a home win in the Premier League?

Our tipster Brad Walker (@brad_TWalker) has ran his eyes over the fixture and picked out a 6/1 tip. 

Brentford vs Aston Villa - Bees' remarkable decline on home turf

Hosts Brentford were among the best home sides in the division during the first half of the campaign, yet have since succumbed to a mysterious slump in front of their own fans since the middle of December. 

Thomas Frank's men won seven of their first eight league matches at the Gtech, drawing the other, but are now without a single win in their last six. Four of those six have also ended in a Brentford loss. 

Adding to the mystique, the Bees have since enjoyed an upturn in form on the road. They failed to record a single away victory prior to their 5-0 win at Southampton at the start of January, yet have now won their last four on the spin on their travels. 

Nevertheless, the record of opponents Aston Villa following Champions League matches will be a source of encouragement. Unai Emery's side have picked up only one win in league matches directly following European outings this term, casting doubt over their ability to capitalise on Brentford's home woes on Saturday evening.

Villa will have been boosted by a 3-1 win at Brugge in the first leg of their round of sixteen tie on Tuesday but are hardly in stellar form themselves. They've picked up just one win in their last five in the league, a run which has seen them slump to 10th position.

Victory will throw them right back into the mix for the race for Champions League football though, given they're only four points off fifth position which is likely to grant entry to Europe's premier club competition next season. 

Best bet for Brentford vs Aston Villa on Saturday, March 8, 2025

Bryan Mbuemo to score first - 6/1

Villa's away form has hardly convinced lately. They were without an away win in four prior to the Brugge game. Add Brentford's poor run at home and it's difficult to predict a winner here, so I'm going to stay away from that particular line here. 

Instead, I'm going to go down the player prop line where I've unearthed an interesting trend regarding Brentford forward Bryan Mbuemo. The Frenchman has been a key pillar in propelling the Bees to being the sixth-highest scorers in the league so far, having mustered 15 league goals up until this point. Only four players have scored more than Mbuemo in the English top-flight. 

Ten of Mbuemo's 15 strikes have put Brentford ahead in the match, while four have put the Bees 1-0 up. Only Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood have scored more opening goals this term.

Yet, Mbuemo still enters a very wide 6/1 to open the scoring once again this weekend. That price is certainly worth backing for me given the uncertainty around who will come out on top on the winner's line.

Brad Walker's best bet for Brentford vs Aston Villa