Borussia Dortmund vs PSG: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Borussia Dortmund welcome PSG to the Westfalenstadion in the first leg of the Champions League semi-final on Tuesday evening.
The sides meet again following a 2-0 Paris win and a 1-1 draw in the group stages earlier this season. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time on Wednesday evening.
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Borussia Dortmund
Despite coming into this fixture as underdogs, Dortmund’s Champions League performances have shown you can never count them out.
Expected to struggle, they topped Group F which had pitted them against AC Milan, Newcastle and PSG. Whilst they were fortunate to face PSV in the Round of 16, getting past Atletico Madrid after losing the first leg was a big achievement.
Functionality has been the key in their European run, remaining solid at the back whilst never truly excelling up front, all the while turning their stadium into a fortress. They have demonstrated an ability to score goals when necessary though, seen clearly in their 4-2 win over Atletico in the second leg of their quarter-final tie. Ever so slightly outperforming their home expected goals (xG) of 1.7, they have averaged 1.8 goals a game. However, BVB only managed seven in six group stage matches.
Despite never dominating games, managing an average of 50% possession and taking a fairly average 12.4 shots per game, their clinical edge has meant that 15% of those have been converted.
Defence is where their strength has been, conceding an average of only 0.6 goals per game when at home against an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.35. Edin Terzic’s men have managed clean sheets in 60% of those games.
PSG
Following a shaky group stage, PSG have gone from strength to strength in the competition. Qualifying in second on goal difference, Luis Enrique’s players were in control as they eased past Real Sociedad before mounting an impressive comeback from a 2-1 defeat to Barcelona to seal the match-up with a 4-1 win away from home.
Paris have been fairly poor away from home in Europe, winning only 40% of their games on the road. They tend to play on the front foot regardless of where they play, averaging 62% possession in both home and away matches.
With an attacking trio of Mbappe, Dembele and Barcola, it is no surprise that they haven’t struggled in front of goal. Having matched their xG of 1.8, the side have yet to not score in the a European game this season.
However, they have also failed to keep a clean sheet as the away team. Their average of 1.8 goals conceded a game is equal to the amount they have scored, meanwhile underperforming their xGA of 1.52. The 8 they conceded in Group F was the joint highest, so they will need to shore things up if they are to progress.
Prediction
After securing their twelfth Ligue 1 title at the weekend, PSG will now be able to turn their full attention to success in Europe. They have, however, been unpredictable on the road so far and come up against a resolute Dortmund defence. OddsNow therefore back the sides to play out a draw before heading to the French capital for the second leg.