Barrow vs Carlisle betting tips: Three picks for high-stakes Cumbrian derby

Thursday night offers Sky Sports viewers up an unglamorous clash at the bottom of League Two – but one which could have huge ramifications for basement side Carlisle as they visit ‘local’ rivals Barrow.

Odds Now’s Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) attempts to put his specialist knowledge as a Carlisle supporter to good use by offering up three bets on the Cumbrian derby.

Selection #1 - Over 2.5 match goals - 11/8

Carlisle’s main issue throughout an abysmal 18-month decline (and there have been many) has been a colossal struggle to score goals – but the underlying numbers from recent outings suggest that trend could soon turn for the beleaguered Blues.

While there’s an obvious lack of a natural goalscorer in their ranks, new boss Mark Hughes has certainly improved the visitors structurally since taking over from Mike Williamson four games ago.

Carlisle were very unfortunate not to beat Newport a fortnight back, missing three Opta-defined 'big chances' before succumbing to the Welsh side’s only shot on target, and then followed that up with a dogged but unspectacular 0-0 against a solid Colchester outfit.

Last Saturday saw a second straight 0-0 against fellow strugglers Gillingham, but having created 2.20 worth of xG in that encounter (and given up over a goal's worth), Hughes can at least take heart that his side are now creating chances at a much more competitive rate.

The experienced Welshman confessed in his post-match interview that wins, not draws, are required in Carlisle’s current predicament, so you feel the handbrake will come off a little bit more once again in this pivotal contest against their rivals.

Barrow have been good for goal-heavy affairs since Andy Whing took charge last month, with six of their seven games under his tutelage seeing over 2.5 goals scored.

Both teams to score also makes plenty of appeal at even money, but I think the 11/8 on offer about over 2.5 goals is the better play – a price undoubtedly inflated by Carlisle’s two recent stalemates.

Selection #2 - Sam Lavelle to be booked - 3/1

These kind of props markets are often goldmines when two unfashionable lower league sides meet, and quotes of 3/1 about Carlisle captain Sam Lavelle picking up a seventh booking in his last 20 games looks the pick of the bunch.

Lavelle has been a regular face throughout two disastrous seasons for the Cumbrians but, to his credit, has put in some improved performances in recent times – particularly since the arrival of Hughes in the dugout.

He has more to his game than just heading and kicking but has unquestionably looked a better defender since moving away from the possession-centric football instilled unsuccessfully by Williamson.

That said, he remains prone to clumsy fouls and has been an absolute card magnet in Carlisle’s away fixtures in recent times.

All six of his cautions this term have been picked up on the road, and even more notably, they have all come in his side’s last 10 League Two road trips.

It takes little further convincing, then, as to why 3/1 on him going into the book in this high-stakes derby fixture make strong appeal.

🗣️ Mark Hughes speaks ahead of Thursday's trip to Barrow. pic.twitter.com/lYxbrr6lc1

— Carlisle United FC (@officialcufc) February 25, 2025

Selection #3 - Callum Whelan to be booked - 4/1

Another man worth chancing in the cards market is visiting midfielder Callum Whelan, who looks set to have a busy night ahead of him.

Signed from National League outfit Gateshead by ex-boss Williamson in January, the 26-year-old has so far managed to keep his starting spot under Hughes and is always a banker to complete 90 minutes.

Traditionally deployed in an attacking midfield role with his old employers, Whelan has generally found himself operating slightly deeper for Carlisle, which does see him out of his comfort zone at times.

There are question marks over the fitness of his fellow midfielders too, with Will Patching taking some time to get up to speed following his arrival from Ireland and the popular Callum Guy only just returning from a spell on the sidelines.

All this suggests that Whelan will be the man tasked with taking the midfield battle to the hosts – potentially at the risk of a card.

Matt Hill’s best bets for Barrow vs Carlisle

- Over 2.5 goals - 6/5

- Sam Lavelle to be booked - 3/1

- Callum Whelan to be booked - 4/1

Matt's three selections can also be rolled into a 29/1 Bet Builder with SkyBet