Barcelona vs Valencia: Betting Odds & Prediction
(Featured image: Alamy Images)
Barcelona hosts European hopefuls Valencia at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys on Monday evening.
Barca look to bounce back following a torrid last week. During that time, they lost to their arch-rivals Real Madrid in the league and crashed out of the Champions League quarter-final to PSG, despite having the advantage after the tie’s first leg.
The reverse fixture ended in a 1-1 draw earlier in the season. Kick-off is set for 8pm UK time.
Recent Form
Barcelona
Before last week’s El Clasico defeat, Barca were in incredible form. They were unbeaten in ten league games and had gained 26 out of the last 30 points available in the league. Their defence had been particularly impressive, having not conceded in six consecutive league matches prior to last weekend.
Xavi’s side has been relatively impressive at home, gaining 2.31 points per game—the fourth-best record in the league. However, they have lost two more home league games already than in the entirety of last season and have conceded the seventh most home goals this season (19), ten more than runaway leaders Real Madrid. This is a massive contrast from last season when they only conceded four home goals en route to becoming champions.
Barca have slightly overperformed offensively this season, scoring 2.13 goals a game when hosting compared to an expected goals (xG) tally of 2.09. However, they have slightly underperformed defensively, conceding 1.19 goals from an expected goals against (xGA) tally of 1.16.
Barca, still without key players Álex Balde, Frenkie De Jong, and Gavi for Monday’s match, start the weekend only two points clear of third-placed Girona.
Valencia
Eighth-placed Valencia are hoping to return to European football for the first time since the 2019/20 season. Los Ches are only four points off sixth-placed Real Sociedad heading into the last six games of the season.
Ruben Baraja’s men have only lost one of their last four league games, keeping three clean sheets in the process. However, their most recent fixture, a 2-1 loss at home to seventh-placed Real Betis, was disappointing.
Valencia has the highest home advantage in the league. Statistics show that the team’s overall performance is 25% better when hosting than on their travels, and their defence is 41% more effective at home than on the road.
Despite this, their away record has improved significantly since the start of the season. They have won four of their last seven away matches, an impressive improvement considering Los Ches only won one away league match in four months prior to this.
Valencia have overperformed offensively on their travels this season scoring one goal a game from an xG of 0.82. However, their defence has slightly underperformed, conceding 1.5 goals a game on the road from an xGA of 1.47.
Prediction
With Barca wanting to send out a statement victory following a tough week and Valencia needing a win to continue their hopes of a European conquest next season, it is hard to see a low-scoring affair. The average number of goals scored per match at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys is 3.31, and we expect that to continue here.
Barcelona’s defence has looked more vulnerable in the last week, and Valencia should look to take advantage of this and at least score once. However, OddsNow believe Barcelona’s quality will shine and see Xavi's side pickup another three points on Monday.