Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid: Three tips ahead of feisty Madrid derby

Atletico Madrid welcome Real Madrid as the pair prepare to collide in the second leg of their Champions League round of sixteen tie. 

Odds Now's Brad Walker (@brad_TWalker) has cast his eyes over the match-up and picked out two fancies ahead of kick-off in the Spanish capital.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid analysis - Hosts strong at home

This match will mark the fourth time these two have met already this season. Their first two meetings ended in 1-1 draws before Real Madrid's 2-1 win at the Bernabeu last week, leaving them in a strong position to progress ahead of kick-off on Wednesday evening. 

Momentum isn't exactly on Atletico's side heading into the second leg. The loss to their city rivals was followed by a damaging 2-1 defeat at Getafe on the weekend, where two late Mauro Arambarri strikes saw the home side take all three points against their title-chasing counterparts. 

Still, Diego Simeone and co still have their home form to cling on to. Atletico are unbeaten in their last 12 matches at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, 10 of which ended in victory. Their recent run against Real is also convincing, given they've lost just one of their last seven home meetings with the current holders in all competitions. 

And so Carlo Ancelotti's men still have a lot to do before looking ahead to the quarter-finals and beyond. Real are in pretty strong form, having lost just one of their previous 10 games in all competitions. 

Clean sheets haven't been easy to come by though. Los Blancos have only picked up two during that period and have registered only one so far in the Champions League.

Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid on Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Selection #1 - Atletico Madrid to win - 8/5

It shouldn't be a huge surprise to see Atletico come in favourites given their recent home record, both in general and in this fixture.

Real have also stuttered on the road in recent weeks. Their last away match saw them come up short in a 2-1 loss to Real Betis, while they also played out a disappointing 1-1 draw at Osasuna in February.

The hosts should also be boosted by the presence of Clement Lenglet and Rodrigo de Paul. The former was withdrawn ahead of kick-off in Getafe, while De Paul was forced off through injury at half-time. 

Both are expected to feature here, strengthening Atletico's bid to reverse the result from the first leg. 

Selection #2 - Atletico Madrid to win & BTTS - 7/2

It may also be worth backing both teams to score in an eventual Atletico win given both sides' recent defensive records. 

Atletico are normally renowned for their tactical nous under Simeone, yet they've kept only two clean sheets in their last seven games in all competitions. In fact, the hosts are yet to keep a single clean sheet at home in the Champions League, where they've shipped six goals across four matches.

As mentioned above, Real have hardly been watertight themselves either. Only one clean sheet in 11 Champions League outings, along with a less than solid four across 14 away La Liga fixtures, doesn't make for a great read given their ambitions of winning this competition once again this season.

Don't get me wrong, there's more than enough juice in the Atletico win alone given the 8/5 price on offer, but this provides a shrewd option if you did want to boost those odds a little further.

Selection #3 - Julian Alvarez to score anytime - 12/5

The Argentine is now in full flow in the Spanish capital following his move from Manchester City in the summer. 

Alvarez has already netted 22 goals in all competitions this season, seven of which have came in European fixtures.

His goal in last week's first leg was also his second in four against Real in the Champions League, yet he still comes in at 2/1 to find the net again here. 

Considering the visitors have made regular habit of conceding lately, Alvarez looks as likely as any Atletico player to capitalise and add to his already impressive tally.

Brad Walker's Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid best bets