Premier League Darts Night 16: Betting Odds and Predictions

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Matt Hill

Darts’ 2024 Premier League roadshow makes its penultimate stop this Thursday as Sheffield’s Utilita Arena hosts the final round of league fixtures.

Luke Littler, Luke Humphries and Michael van Gerwen will be tussling for the title at the O2 Arena next week with one of Nathan Aspinall or MIchael Smith set to join them.

That duo’s showdown naturally tops the bill, though with prize money, final positions and plenty of pride on the line, it’s sure to be a pulsating evening in South Yorkshire.

Tournament Format

Each week, eight of the world’s best darts players face off in a mini-tournament at a different arena, with quarter-finals, semi-finals and a final all taking place in one night. The Premier League takes place across 16 nights in total, with this week being the 16th. All games are best of 11 legs.

Players will be rewarded with ranking points each night — five to the winner, three to the runner-up and two to the players who lose in the semi-finals. Points are added up across the 16 weeks, with the top four players at the conclusion of the league phase proceeding to the tournament play-offs in May.

WEEK 16 QUARTER-FINAL LINEUP

Luke Littler vs Peter Wright

Nathan Aspinall vs Michael Smith

Luke Humphries vs Gerwyn Price

Michael van Gerwen vs Rob Cross

Luke Littler vs Peter Wright

As is tradition with the Premier League’s final night, top faces bottom to kick off proceedings and victory for Littler here will secure him pole position on debut. In fact, the only way the teenager can be usurped is if he loses to Snakebite and his old foe Humphries goes on to land the Night 16 title.

That seems unlikely — mainly due to the performances of the beleaguered Wright in this year’s renewal. His inclusion, despite some shoddy form, caused plenty of controversy back in January and unfortunately for the two-time world champion, he has been unable to silence his doubters.

There’s a reasonable chance this could be the 54-year-old’s last ever Premier League outing as a result, so perhaps that will serve him with some extra motivation against a stretched Littler, who looked fatigued in both last Thursday’s 6-1 semi-final loss to Van Gerwen and in Kiel a day later when losing his first-round Euro Tour clash to Wessel Nijman.

That said, the Nuke brushed aside his opponent 6-1 in last week’s opener and even at half-strength, he’d remain a worthy favourite in this contest. 

Nathan Aspinall vs Michael Smith

After 15 weeks of battle, the fate of both Aspinall and Smith comes down to one solitary best-of-11 affair. At bare minimum, this is a £10,000 game of arrows (the difference between finishing fourth and fifth), though the victor also earns the chance to play for a further £40,000 (play-off semi-final winner) and £150,000 (play-off final winner) next week. The stakes don’t get much higher.

The Asp could have avoided all this drama had he beaten his good friend last week, but a gusty 6-3 success for the Bully Boy in Leeds has given him the chance of timing his run to perfection. The 2023 world champ has been inside the top four for just one week since February 29th — not that anyone will remember that should he be there come Friday morning.

Given last week’s result, you have to say momentum is with Smith. Interestingly, he was a no-show at last weekend’s Baltic Sea Open in Germany, while Aspinall opted to travel and was sent packing in the first round by the in-form Ritchie Edhouse. He won’t have been too discouraged with his 99 average, however.

This quite simply will come down to who can finish better and while plenty looks stacked against Aspinall, his bottle in the pressure moments has been the backbone of a hugely impressive campaign. The Stockport ace just needs to maintain his composure to seal a deserved spot in the final four.

Luke Humphries vs Gerwyn Price

Humphries was visibly ecstatic to reign supreme in his home-away-from-home last week, edging out MVG 6-5 in the final to the delight of a lairy Leeds crowd. He, like Littler, now has the opportunity to become the first player to secure five individual night wins since the current Premier League format was introduced back in 2022. 

He concludes his league phase campaign against last year’s table-topper Gerwyn Price, who has been bitterly disappointing in 2024. Price was a comfortable league winner last year, banishing a hoodoo in the process which had seen him never finish higher than fifth in his previous four attempts. Yet the Iceman has reverted to type this time around, cutting a frequently frustrated figure en route to 10 first-round exits in 14 outings.

Remarkably, this pair have only faced off twice in the last 15 weeks, with Price missing a scheduled quarter-final clash a fortnight ago due to a bad back. Humphries won both of those earlier meetings in Glasgow and Brighton and is back to his sparkling best at the moment, arriving in Sheffield off the back of a painful runner-up effort on the Euro Tour which included a nine-darter in his 8-6 final loss to Rob Cross.

Price can certainly feel he’s had some bad luck in certain contests this term and he’ll need that to turn here, as well as bring his A-game, if he is to turn over the tournament favourite.

Michael van Gerwen vs  Rob Cross

Last year’s seventh title saw Van Gerwen become the most successful player in Premier League history, moving clear of the great Phil Taylor. Despite some stop-start form in 2024, there is plenty of reason to think the Dutchman will be toasting his eighth success come May 23rd. Nobody does it better when it comes to getting the job done at the O2 Arena than Mighty Mike, as most of the PDC’s biggest names have felt first-hand.

Six straight quarter-final exits between weeks seven and 12 put paid to Rob Cross’ chances of a top-four finish this term, though Voltage at least made a fist of things in the final weeks by reaching back-to-back finals in week 13 and 14. He lost both of those showpieces to the mercurial Littler, however, and last week’s 6-1 loss to Humphries was the final nail in his coffin in terms of progression.

Still, Cross enters in great nick having added a long-awaited second Euro Tour title to his trophy cabinet on Sunday night when beating Humphries 8-6 in an epic Baltic Sea Darts Open final, withstanding a perfect leg from Cool Hand to secure the triumph. Though he won’t be at the O2 next week, big things appear to be on the horizon for the 2018 world champion. 

Van Gerwen, meanwhile, has been alternating between quarter-final exits and deeper runs for the last eight weeks, so superstitious types could view that as a good omen for the underdog here. Interestingly, Cross has also won the last three meetings in this year’s competition.

PREDICTION

Varying emotions are sure to be on show in Sheffield, with the trio of already-qualified stars able to relax and enjoy the evening while those already knocked out are likely relishing their taxi home. Of the big hitters, Van Gerwen traditionally loves sending a warning shot to his peers ahead of a big event, so history tells us the 9/2 on him winning the evening looks a fair punt. 

Beyond that, it would be no surprise to see him face the winner of Smith and Aspinall’s showdown in the Week 16 final, given how much freedom the victor should be playing with in their semi-final after emerging through a crunch encounter.

An MVG - Aspinall or MVG - Smith forecast could reap huge rewards for more speculative punters from a modest stake.

ODDS NOW’S PICK: MICHAEL VAN GERWEN TO WIN NIGHT 16 (9/2 @ BET365)

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