Players Championship Finals 2024: Darts predictions, preview and best bets

Ahead of the PDC Players Championships Finals starting on Friday afternoon, our arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) gives his thoughts and best bets ahead of three crazy days in Minehead. 

The cold weather has arrived. The dark nights are here. All is said and done in Wolverhampton, which can only mean one thing — we are within touching distance of the pinnacle of the darting year. But before attention turns to Ally Pally, there is the small matter of £120,000 up for grabs at the Players Championship Finals this weekend. 

This tournament may not garner the interest of next month's worlds (far from it), yet it has an almighty impact on how the sport’s glorious showpiece pans out. Such is the tight nature of the current Order of Merit, a deep run this weekend will literally catapult most players from one side of the World Championship draw to the other — for better or worse. When one considers that both Luke Littler and Luke Humphries are set to be in the top section of the World Championship bracket, it is perhaps advisable for other players to target a bottom half berth at all costs!

The format in Minehead is pretty straightforward. Just like we are used to with the Pro Tour events throughout the season, best of eleven leg encounters make up the first two rounds, rapidly reducing the field from 64 players to 16. From there, a proper darts tournament starts to emerge with an extending leg format and the high pressure environment of Minehead’s main stage in front of plenty of prying eyes.

Should the so-called “big boys” make it to the last sixteen, that is the kind of environment where experience shows. In fact, the last three champions here have all gone on to reach the World Championship final six weeks later — with two (Wright and Humphries) actually going on to win it. So, this certainly isn’t a bad trophy to get your hands on. 

However, when factoring in the chaos we will inevitably see in rounds one and two, it is hard to dismiss the possibility of this being the fourth straight TV tournament to throw up a shock finalist. As for who that will be, we are in the realms of logical guesses — but that won’t stop me having a go.

Littler's Grand Slam romp makes Humphries value

No prizes then for guessing who arrives as favourite here. Luke Littler, fresh off some outrageous antics in the West Midlands, is no bigger than 7/2 to lift a second major TV title in as many weeks, having only officially broken his duck last weekend.

The Nuke answered every question posed en route to Grand Slam glory, with brutal destructions of Jermaine Wattimena and Martin Lukeman complemented by titanic battles against Mike De Decker and Gary Anderson where his powers of immense recovery were tested to their limit. Whatever the scenario, whatever the occasion, it doesn’t seem to faze this teenage sensation.

That said, you would want to be pretty confident of round one progression backing someone at such a price — and I just can’t get there with Littler given he has a devilish opening encounter with in-form Rob Cross to negotiate. 

What you have to understand is that for all of Littler’s brilliance, he — or any other man for that matter — is never going to win a double-figure haul of Pro Tour events in any one season in this ultra-competitive modern era of darts. The standard is simply far too high, combined with the huge amount of fortune and variance factored into first-to-six contests.

Playing somebody of  Cross’ calibre over such a short format leaves much to chance. Littler can play as well as he likes, but if Cross also brings his A-game, who progresses is likely to come down to something as minuscule as winning the bull or missing a solitary dart at double. That isn’t to say Littler can’t (and probably will) find a way through. But it is enough to put me off at 7/2.

A few weeks ago, the thought of Luke Humphries not topping these betting markets would have felt a stretch, yet things change quickly in elite level sport. At the time of speaking, there is some 9/2 floating about on Cool Hand, which feels borderline overgenerous when considering the bigger picture.

Yes, Humphries has exited early in both the European Championship and the Grand Slam but I see no reason to panic. In the former, he bumped into an inspired Wattimena, who has since shown his exploits there were no flash in the pan. And whilst his group stage departure in Wolverhampton, exiting after just two matches, was a big surprise, he did average 100 in his final dead rubber clash with Micky Mansell. So there is nothing to suggest his form has fallen off dramatically. 

After that game, the world champ admitted that his mind had been elsewhere with his little boy under the weather, before pointing out that he would now get to enjoy a rare and much needed break from the oche. We can therefore expect Humphries to arrive in Minehead refreshed and raring to remind the darting world who the world number one actually is. You might be getting this impression already, but I do believe Humphries is worthy of an investment at the current price. 

His opener with Gabriel Clemens looks fairly kind given the German Giant’s underwhelming 2024, before a second round clash with either Raymond van Barneveld or Chris Landman is negotiable hurdle. From round three, the format extends to best-of-19 and once Humphries gets into the longer format, the rest are in big trouble.

Drifting big names don't hold huge appeal

Although I continue to watch Micheal Van Gerwen’s current drift in the market with interest, I’m not sure I can be getting with him at 10/1 on what we have seen over the last month or so.

When the Green Machine, who is the record performer in this tournament with seven victories, impressively won a European Tour event in late September and quickly followed it up with a floor triumph, it appeared we had a revived MVG on our hands. And yet, those green shoots of encouragement have vanished as quickly as they appeared — the latest disappointing showing seeing him limp out of the Grand Slam group stage for the first time ever.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that his form switches again here but at the current price, you would still wanted to have seen more from him in Wolverhampton.

Joining him in the 10/1 bracket now is rejuvenated Anderson. The Flying Scotsman was sublime at the Grand Slam and though his long-standing quest for that trophy ended in a heartbreaking 16-15 semi-final loss to Littler on Sunday, he emerged from it with huge credit.

Anyone with continuing nagging doubts about the 53-year-old’s ability to transfer outstanding floor form onto the biggest stages can now rest easy. Anderson is without doubt a serious contender both here and at Ally Pally. 

In many ways, it would be fitting for Anderson to win this given some of the rather obscene performances he has produced in this Players Championships campaign. Nobody has averaged higher than him across the calendar year and as a three time winner of this, it is hard to argue with those who will opt to get him on side.

He made my shortlist but given he would likely meet Humphries in a best-of-21 quarter-final, I have to give him a wide berth and stick with the younger man — who won their only other recent major encounter 16-14 at last year’s Grand Slam.

It’s quite an eye-catching leap up from this point in terms of prices, with the remainder 22/1 or bigger.

Gerwyn Price looks to have quite a nice draw and certainly is due a deep run, so is mildly attractive as a betting proposition but I still can’t quite get there with his abysmal recent major record in mind. Michael Smith is someone who I am watching very closely in the World Championship market as a big drifter and the Bully Boy again has quite an attractive draw. He is a 28/1 chance, as is Stephen Bunting, but while the St Helens duo are rightful joint-favourites to progress from the open-looking quarter three, I’d rather take my chances on a bigger price in the format.

Improving Dirk worth chancing at a big price

The answer to the quarter three conundrum could instead lie with one of Jonny Clayton or Dirk van Duijvenbode. Both men are finally back on an upward curve after 12 months comprising mainly of struggle and frustration. Clayton has had to deal with the loss of his father — a period which the Welshman admits made him question his very future in darts — while Van Duijvenbode has endured a draining and testing comeback from various injury issues.

Providing they take care of Florian Hempel and Callan Rydz in round one as the market expects, the duo’s second round encounter will offer up the victor a presentable route through to the semi-finals, and in turn, some much needed momentum and confidence ahead of Alexandra Palace. But from a betting perspective, it’s knowing which one to side with.

The recent head-to-head record leans in favour of Dirk, who has emerged victorious in four of his last five meetings with Clayton including their sole clash this term. I also liked what I saw from the Aubergenius at last month’s European Championship, impressively taking care of Martin Schindler and Daryl Gurney in his opening encounters before falling to Luke Woodhouse in the quarter-finals. 

Therefore, I will give him a chance at 66/1 each way. Note that those in possession of a “Boost” facility on their Ladbrokes account can pump that price up to 80/1, which makes this selection significantly more attractive. Particularly if the sponsors remain four places 1/4 in their each-way terms.

Special Nijman is a superstar in-waiting

Before I get to into the absolute rags of the market, I will be keeping the faith in Wessel Nijman, who is an automatic each-way bet for me currently at 40/1.

Anyone who’s watched any previews of mine in recent times will know how highly I rate Nijman. I believe he has the ability to rival Littler, Humphries et al, minus the hype or popularity of course. But at 24 years of age, he’s already capable of competing on the very biggest stages and soon, the very thought of backing him at a price like 25/1, never mind 40/1, will seem like a pipe dream.

In Wolverhampton, the Dutch ace exited at the group stage with the highest cumulative average ever achieved by someone not to win a game. In fact, his 105, 106 and 111 efforts mean he was hitting the exact same levels which saw Littler lift the trophy — so him doing something similar in Minehead is really not as far-fetched as it may seem.

I haven’t even given a mention to the likes of Damon Heta, Chris Dobey, Ryan Searle, Mike De Decker, Josh Rock and several more who are more than capable of lifting this trophy on their day. But that’s just darts, isn’t it? You have to trim the list down and instead, my final three outright darts will be thrown in a more speculative fashion.

Trio worth chancing at three-figure prices

First, Ritchie Edhouse is simply too big at 100/1 and merits an each-way poke. The European Champion shouldn’t be a hard sell for anyone who has been paying attention and it would be remiss not to lend him some support at three figures. At double that price,

Wesley Plaisier has caused chaos on the floor this year. He doesn’t even currently hold a tour card, though that has been resolved ahead of next year due to the 34-year-old’s impressive Challenge Tour exploits. When stepping up to the Players Championship stage this term, Plaisier has looked right at home. He made finals at PC13 and PC14 on consecutive days, before remarkably lifting the PC28 title last month — only the fourth non-tour card holder to ever achieve such a feat. 

Plaisier is worth a small investment at 200/1, particularly given his favourable draw section.

And finally, it’s worth adding his fellow Challenge Tour star Connor Scutt alongside him at 250/1. Scutt has also shown he can handle the step up to the highest level, making the PC22 final in September where he narrowly came up short against Anderson in the final. He is a majestic 180 hitter who is unlikely to be fazed by the MInehead crowd and having smashed Dave Chisnall 5-0 in the Grand Slam last month, there is plenty more to come from the 28-year-old Londoner.

Matt’s Players Championship Finals outright bets

- Luke Humphries - 9/2 (4pt win)

- Wessel Nijman - 40/1 (1pt each way)

- Dirk van Duijvenbode - 66/1 (0.75pt each way)

- Ritchie Edhouse - 100/1 (0.75pt each way)

- Wesley Plaisier - 200/1 (0.25pt each way)

- Connor Scutt - 250/1 (0.25pt each way)

Total staked - 10pts