PDC World Championship: Wednesday evening preview and best bets

With no afternoon action from Alexandra Palace on Wednesday, our darts expert Matt HIll (@Matt_Hill93) only has four evening games to preview on day four of the PDC World Championship.

Nathan Aspinall is the most high-profile name in action and our tipster has picks in every clash for your perusal.

PDC World Championship 2025 betting tips

Jim Williams vs Paolo Nebrida

Jim Williams will be looking to make the third round of the PDC World Championship for a third year running and gets his 2024/25 campaign underway against Paolo Nebrida.

Williams is, for my money, one of the most talented players outside of the world's top 16 in terms of raw ability but by his own admission, doesn't practice enough to fulfil his true potential.

The Welshman has business interests outside of the sport which take up a lot of his time and while he can still mix it with the very best in the sport, that lack of full-time commitment probably knocks two or three points off his seasonal averages.

The Quiff is a dangerous man at the Ally Pally though, having accounted for both James Wade and Peter Wright in the last two years alone. He was particularly unfortunate not to reach round four last year, losing a high-quality affair to Gabriel Clemens 4-3 with a 98 average.

He's a warm favourite to beat Nebrida and while I expect him to do so, the Asian qualifier has shown himself capable of competing.

The Filipino World Cup star, who turns 30 later this month, will be hoping it is third time lucky at the Ally Pally having lost both of his previous clashes here by 3-2 scorelines, to Danny Jansen two years ago and Simon Whitlock last term.

Interestingly, he won the 180 lines in both of those match-ups, so don't be surprised to see him peppering the treble in the early stages of this contest. You would think, though, that class will tell eventually. 

As a warm 1/4 favourite, Williams should prove too strong for Nebrida but the underdog can maintain his record of getting on the scoreboard. Williams winning with over 3.5 sets (i.e. both players to win one set) looks a wise ploy at 21/20 with Bet365.

Best bet - Jim Williams to win and over 3.5 sets - 21/20 (Bet365)

Madars Razma vs Christian Kist

Any followers of my pre-tournament best bets for round one will be fairing better than daily column readers at the moment, thanks to two winners from the first two selections.

Kai Gotthardt winning the 180 line at 4/1 against Alan Soutar was a real highlight, while the 6/4 pick of Connor Scutt to win 3-0 against Ben Robb never looked in doubt. Let's hope those good vibes continue here with undoutbedly my quirkiest selection of the show.

Madars Razma has been backed into a decent favourite to overcome Christian Kist here — an assessment I'd agree with due to both the Lativan's relentless consistency and the flat spot former BDO World Champion Kist has found himself in recently.

Despite being a clear underdog, though, Kist finds himself a general 1/2 chance with most sportsbooks to win the 180 count, due largely to Razma's proficiency on the 19s segment.

Razma is the only player on the Pro Tour circuit who frequents that part of the board on almost every turn, meaning his chances of hitting maximums are signficantly reduced. In fact, across his last four PDC World Championship matches, he has hit just six maximums in a whopping 17 sets.

Therefore, we find ourselves in an unusual position where Kist is likely to out-maximum his opponent but still quite feasibly fall short of the winning line. I think the 2/1 Ladbrokes and Coral are offering about the two outcomes occuring is too big. Most places make it an 11/8 shot, which is about right. 

Hopefully it'll be three from three on those antepost picks!

Best bet - Madars Razma to win, Christian Kist most 180s - 2/1 (Ladbrokes)

Ricky Evans vs Gordon Mathers

Ricky Evans and the Ally Pally are a match made in heaven. Christmas-themed walk-ons, 180s galore and normally always a first round win — but he's struggled to kick on from that point.

That is, until last year, where Evans won a second game in the same renewal for the first time ever, disposing of both South African qualifier Simon Adams and the great Nathan Apsinall without dropping a single set.

His third round loss to Daryl Gurney was a closer affair than even the 4-2 scoreline suggested, making for what was unquestionably Rapid's best campaign here at the ninth time of asking.

This looks like a good opportunity for the Kettering-born joker to continue that Worlds momentum, taking on Australian former tour card holder Gordon Mathers as a warm 1/5 favourite. Mathers, of course, will have other ideas though.

The man known as "GG" is back on British shores, having competed to a decent level during his two-year Pro Tour stint in 2021 and 2022. Though he didn't retain his card, the big Aussie did claim a fair few scalps — particuarly on the floor.

I always felt like nerves got the better of Mathers in both of his previous Ally Pally experiences. Things went slightly better in his most recent appearance, winning a set in a 3-1 reverse to Jason Heaver back in 2022, but it was still only an 81 average he produced in that contest.

There's no doubting the underdog is capable of better but even if he brings close to his best level, he'll be reliant on Evans not hitting his usual standards. Given how much focus Ricky puts on this tournament, it's hard to see him not coming in suitably prepared after what has been a decent year's work.

As mentioned, Evans always brings 180s to the table. In his last six matches here, he's always hit at least four maximums and any kind of repeat will surely top what Mathers can muster. Back the Evans win with the most 180s at a generous 5/6 with Betfair.

Best bet - Ricky Evans to win and hit the most 180s - 5/6 (Betfair)

Nathan Aspinall vs Leonard Gates

Former UK Open and World Matchplay champ Nathan Aspinall enters the tournament in Wednesday's final encounter, where he may have been expecting to bump into a standout 2024 performer in Cameron Menzies.

However, the Scot was on the wrong end of a 3-1 scoreline in his opener with America's Leonard Gates — though it was a contest clearly blighted by factors off the oche, with Menzies appearing to suffer some kind of panic attack in the final set.

Gates kept his head against an emotional opponent to close out an impressive success. The Soulger is more often seen excelling on the Seniors circuit but this was a timely reminder that he can cause anyone a headache, even if his counting leaves plenty to be desired.

Dubbed "Lenny Too Many" by many of his compatriots Stateside, you never feel like a mathematical error is far away with Gates. He even confessed to Darts Now earlier this week that he nearly missed his first round match, having booked his flights and planned his preperation around the wrong day.

Leonard Gates Reveals What He Told Emotional Cameron Menzies and Says He Nearly Missed First Game

🤣Soulger reveals he made a MISTAKE with his dates and only landed this morning after MISREADING the draw

🎥FULL INT.👇🏼https://t.co/2RYhE8mr4h pic.twitter.com/SijXdNuzIp

— Darts Now (@DartsNow_) December 16, 2024

All jokes aside, Gates knows he needs more against Aspinall — a class act who has continued to compete largely at the top end of the sport despite obvious battles with injury and dartitis in the last two years. 

The Asp has an excellent record at Ally Pally but suffered a low point last year when dumped out 3-0 at the first hurdle by the aforementioned Ricky Evans. All signs are he is absolutely determind to right the wrongs of that effort — and the Stockport-born star is a dangerous beast when rattled.

I think the favourite will be desperate to lay a marker down here and quotes of 7/4 about him winning have tempted me in.

I will remind followers though that all four of my previous 3-0 correct score picks have finished 3-1 to the player in question. Make of that what you will!

Best bet - Nathan Aspinall 3-0 Leonard Gates correct score - 7/4 (Ladbrokes)

Matt Hill's best PDC World Championship darts bets for Wednesday, December 18, 2024

• 2pts - Jim Williams to win and over 3.5 sets - 21/20 (Bet365)
• 1pt -Madars Razma to win, Christian Kist most 180s - 2/1 (Ladbrokes)
• 2pts - Ricky Evans to win and hit most 180s - 5/6 (Betfair)
• 1pt -Nathan Apsinall 3-0 Leonard Gates correct score - 7/4 (general)
• 1pt  - Williams, Razma, Evans and Aspinall all to win 3-0 or 3-1 - 6/1 (Skybet)