PDC World Championship: Sunday preview and best bets

It was another profitable day for our darts expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) yesterday with four winners across the action, including a 3/1 correct score shout in Luke Littler’s clash.

Check out our expert’s views on Sunday’s six PDC World Championship matches as round three concludes and the last 16 begins.

PDC World Championship 2025 betting tips

Jeffrey De Graaf vs Paolo Nebrida

Poor old Paolo Nebrida. A week ago, he’d caused the biggest upset of the tournament so far when dumping out Ross Smith in straight sets — a mantle he held for about an hour before today’s opponent,

Jeffrey De Graaf, dumped out the great Gary Anderson in the same emphatic manner.

I’m sure Nebrida didn’t mind too much, having doubled his all-time win tally at Ally Pally against Smudger to prove a fabulous first-round triumph over Jim Williams was anything but a flash in the pan.

He enters this clash with Dutch-Swede hybrid De Graaf as a 5/2 outsider, which seems on the large side to me given everything we’ve seen from the Filipino thus far on English soil.

Remember, even his two previous unsuccessful PDC World Championship campaigns ended in narrow 3-2 defeats to Simon Whitlock and Danny Jansen respectively. History shows us he doesn’t go down without a fight.

Now, with wins over tour stars Williams and Smith under his belt, confidence must be sky-high and an unexpected Christmas stay in London seemed to be something he was very much embracing in his post-match press conference.

His throw, undoubtedly on the methodical side, looks really well engineered like many of his Asian compatriots and I don’t really see it failing him when the pressure is on today.

Scoring-wise, his first-nine average (100) against Smith comfortably outperformed what De Graaf produced versus Anderson (94). So there’s no reason he won’t manufacture doubling opportunities — and he’s shown himself to be a demon on the outer ring too.

Ultimately, I don’t fancy hanging my hat on De Graaf at the prices. He’s a rock solid pro who was good value for his sensational defeat of the Flying Scotsman, but this kind of clash is an entirely different prospect.

The crowd will get behind Nebrida, the financial rewards for a player in De Graaf’s ranking position are bound to be on the mind and there’s ample reason to think this could be a tricky afternoon for him.

Over 5.5 sets looks the best play to me here at a generous 10/11, while I’ll also chuck a point on Paolo to keep his fairytale rolling.

Best bet - Over 5.5 sets in Paolo Nebrida vs Jeffrey De Graaf - 10/11 (BetVictor)

Kevin Doets vs Krzysztof Ratajski

As a darts betting nerd, it’s not all that often that I look at a match market for the first time and am genuinely surprised by the pricing — but I did expect this to be a pick’em.

As it is, Krzysztof Ratajski is 8/13 virtually across the board, while Kevin Doets is 13/10. Quite simply, that means I’ll be backing the Dutchman to prevail.

Both players impressed in the last round in entirely different fashion.

Ratajski was business-like in disposing of the dangerous Alexis Toylo. A 95 average, five 180s and 55% on the doubles. Rock solid from the Polish Eagle, who has had a pretty mediocre last few years, truth be told.

Doets, meanwhile, held his own in a scrappy back-and-forth with Michael Smith before exploding into life in a memorable deciding set.

The Dutch ace was barely averaging above 92 for the first four stanzas before sliding through the gears, averaging 106 across a pulsating 10-leg finale which featured six 180s and some jaw-dropping clutch finishing.

It was an emotional success for Doets, who avenged a heartbreaking defeat to Bully Boy from a year earlier, though I don’t get the impression he sees his job as finished.

A repeated theme of his post-match press conference was the amount of confidence he had gained from that victory — “more than you could ever understand” — and I’ve always had Doets down as one of the circuit’s most high-potential stars anyway.

So, if he is now ready to start adding consistency to his game, I do think he can start doing some serious damage in the back-end of tournaments.

Ratajski has made a career out of being the most reliable of operators but I do feel Krzysztof’s career has just lacked the X-Factor that someone like Kevin possesses.

The Pole’s best days are probably beyond him now and he’s only been past this round once in six previous attempts, which wouldn’t fill you with confidence as a backer.

Chris Dobey also mentioned yesterday after defeating Josh Rock that he’d been practicing with Doets and they both fancied their chances of meeting each other in the last 16. I think that prediction may well come to light.

Best bet - Kevin Doets to beat Krzysztof Ratajski - 13/10 (general)

Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Callan Rydz

It’s so good to see Callan Rydz back somewhere near his best after what has been a torrid two years for one of the game’s most aesthetically-pleasing throws.

The Riot is a rapid operator who, at his peak, slams 180s in a silky smooth fashion and makes this ridiculously difficult game look easy. But he’s had to grind hard to get through what has been a tough patch, with some mechanical issues hugely compounded by some well-documented mental troubles.

Rydz is his own worst critic, describing himself as a “fruitcake” after dispatching Romeo Grbavac 3-0 with the first round’s highest average — a ginormous 107.6.

But whatever he wants to label himself, it seems the Geordie has finally realised he needs to stop beating himself up on the stage and just enjoy games a bit more.

He carried that new happy-go-lucky approach into a clash with German No1 Martin Schindler, where he was again victorious via a whitewash scoreline, causing what the bookies considered a significant upset.

Truth be told, though, if Rydz can get back to his very best then he will be a genuine contender here for years to come, rather than the 500/1 rag he was sent off a fortnight ago.

This will be his stiffest test to date against Dimitri Van den Bergh, who was impressive in patches when downing Dylan Slevin 3-0 in his first outing of the tournament.

It’s hard to pick faults in a 96 average supplemented by six 180s, though if you were being picky, the way he was taken to a deciding leg in every set by an unfancied and inexperienced opponent would perhaps be a slight cause for concern.

Van den Bergh was priced an 8/11 favourite for this encounter but money has unsurprisingly come for Rydz, who looks set to be sent off around the 11/10 mark.

I think an “upset” is very plausible but prefer to play the 180s line here.

Both players love a maximum and I think both will need their scoring boots on, which makes for potential carnage on the T20 bed. What’s more, they aren’t the most proficient switchers, so I’m expecting more chances for a 180 than you’d get in a standard contest.

Over 13.5 180s is 21/20 with Coral and Ladbrokes, which looks good for a two-point stake, while over 15.5 is also worth a point investment at 9/4.

This could be fun!

Best bet - Over 13.5 180s in Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Callan Rydz - 21/20 (Coral)

Ricky Evans vs Robert Owen

Ricky Evans must be growing in confidence by the second on that Alexandra Palace stage after dumping out Dave Chisnall 4-3 in an absolute epic.

It is the second year running that Rapid has dumped out a seeded player to seal a return after Christmas, though I’m sure he’ll be keen to kick on again and break new ground when he takes on Robert Owen.

It’s hard not to feel for the Welshman, who jubilantly bellowed down the microphone “I’ve retained my Tour Card, come on!” after stunning Gabriel Clemens in round two.

As it happens, he hasn’t quite done so yet. Jeffrey De Graaf’s win over Gary Anderson, unlikely as it was, means Owen will need to win this to avoid a Q-School trip (unless Nebrida does him a favour and wins earlier in the day).

It’s hard to think that won’t have some kind of impact on his mindset heading into this contest, though I’m not sure whether it’ll be positive or negative in all honesty.

Regardless, this is a huge opportunity for both players and one they are both capable of seizing, as the market suggests. I could see the appeal for backing an Owen upset, though I think the price has probably gone.

Instead, I’m going to play the Evans alternative 180s line. The market expects Rapid Ricky to plunder in four or five maximums but I think he can go a little bit better, based on what we saw against Chizzy.

Rarely have I seen Evans find the lipstick with his first two darts and fail to follow with the third. It was a frustrating watch having backed the overs, but there’s every chance we can cop some compensation here.

Bet365 go 5/4 about him hitting over 5.5 against Owen and given the market has this down as a tight affair, let’s take a chance on Evans finding his range this evening.

Best bet - Ricky Evans over 5.5 180s vs Robert Owen - 5/4 (Bet365)

Gerwyn Price vs Jonny Clayton

A seismic battle to start round four at Ally Pally between Welsh darts’ two biggest names.

The duo, who have lifted the World Cup of Darts in two of the last five renewals, have had more high-profile match-ups than you would care to count, giving us plenty of form in the book to assess.

That undoubtedly favours Price. He has won nine of the last 10 meetings, remarkably — though the Ferret did arguably win their highest-profile encounter when emphatically smashing Price 5-1 in the 2021 World Grand Prix final.

That recent run is a horror show for Clayton though and you’d have to think it’ll pray on his mind a bit heading into this encounter, which could be a career-altering moment for the winner.

A quarter-final clash with one of Chris Dobey, Kevin Doets or Krzysztof Ratajski awaits, so whoever emerges victorious will feel like they can almost grasp a semi-final berth.

If you’re a Clayton backer (like me, at three figures outright and 9/1 for the quarter), this does feel like the key match. Price is a worthy favourite, but there are some positives to be found in his shoddy doubling.

The Ice Man spurned 40 darts at double against Joe Cullen, including several important ones which let the Rockstar push a contest he had no right to win all the way towards a sudden death leg.

Price knows he needs to improve that aspect of his game but that is easier said than done and if Clayton can continue to steadily improve his numbers on the outer ring as he did from game one to game two, he can punish the inevitable errors better than Cullen did.

The scoring power of Price is an obvious concern though. It goes without saying, probably, but this game is just a watching brief for me. Go, Jonny, go!

Best bet - No bet

Luke Humphries vs Peter Wright

A tasty showdown to end the evening between reigning champ Luke Humphries and a two-time winner in Peter Wright who, in the words of Humphries, has “had plenty to say recently”.

Snakebite, who is not adverse to sharing a controversial soundbite, took great pleasure in telling media before the tournament started that he would all of his doubters wrong and “smash Humphries and Littler”. It was said with tongue in cheek, to an extent, but it appears to have rattled last year’s winner a little.

Humphries wasted no time after beating NIck Kenny on Friday in pointing out that he is only one World Championship title away from equalling Wright’s tally, despite being 25 years younger.

For someone who said he was unaffected by Wright’s comments, I found it a slightly contradictory reaction. However, I think it’s all positive stuff from a Humphries perspective.

If he needs a bit of back-and-forth to fire himself up, then so be it. The best players often do, and it may be a case of “you won’t like me when I’m angry” this evening as Cool Hand looks to hammer home his point.

Wright was hugely impressive in beating Jermaine Wattimena, though. Despite battling through what appeared a heavy bout of man flu, the veteran rolled back the years to dump out the Dutchman with his best performance in over three months.

Do I think Wright has enough in the tank to beat Humphries? Not right now, to be honest. But I do think he can be the first man this year to take a set off him.

Providing Wright manages that, it gives Humphries around 21 legs or so to produce over 6.5 maximums, which feels very achievable if he’s as fired up as I’m expecting him to be.

Let’s combine over 4.5 sets and over 6.5 Humphries 180s, which looks a rock solid even money shot to pull the curtain down on the day’s action.

Best bet - Over 4.5 sets and Luke Humphries over 6.5 180s - EVS (Bet365)

Matt Hill's best PDC World Championship darts bets for Sunday December 29, 2024

• 2pts- Over 5.5 sets in Paolo Nebrida vs Jeffrey De Graaf - 10/11 (BetVictor)
• 1pt- Paolo Nebrida to beat Jeffrey De Graaf - 5/2 (general)
• 2pts - Kevin Doets to beat Krzysztof Ratajski - 13/10 (general)
• 2pts - Over 13.5 180s in Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Callan Rydz - 21/20 (Coral)
• 1pt - Over 15.5 180s in Dimitri Van den Bergh vs Callan Rydz - 9/4 (Coral)
• 2pts - Ricky Evans over 5.5 180s vs Robert Owen - 5/4 (Bet365)
• 2pts - Over 4.5 sets and Luke Humphries over 6.5 180s vs Peter Wright - EVS (Bet365)