PDC World Championship: Quarter-finals preview and best bets

We are down to the final eight at darts’ PDC World Championship, with all the remaining contenders now just three wins away from lifting the famous Sid Waddell Trophy on Friday evening.

And 2025 starts in style for arrows fans with four fantastic quarter-final match-ups on New Year’s Day, which our resident darts expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) is on hand to walk you through alongside his best bets.

PDC World Championship 2025 betting tips

Chris Dobey vs Gerwyn Price

For Chris Dobey backers like myself, Monday’s last-16 clash with Kevin Doets was not exactly comfortable viewing.

Yes, Hollywood found a way past his resilient opponent eventually but only after an absolute slugfest, typified by a combination of sensational scoring and dreadful doubling from the Geordie.

Dobey carved himself out 62 opportunities at the outer ring but only converted 17 of them, operating at a miserly 27% conversion rate. This is now a continuing trend in this tournament, having gone at 41% in his opener versus Alexander Merkx before dropping down to 37% against Josh Rock.

Some will label this a matter of bottle (or lack of), though I’ve never really subscribed to that theory. You don’t win tournaments like the Masters, or compete so brilliantly in countless majors, or average over a ton in 40% of your Premier League matches, if you don’t have bottle.

Sure, doubles are the weak point of Dobey’s game. But when they are firing, he can produce levels that beat anyone in the sport. It’s a similar theme for his quarter-final opponent.

Tough game when you start missing doubles 🙈🤷‍♂️ delighted to come through a close encounter, ill make sure I’m ready for New Years Day 👀💪🎯 pic.twitter.com/3PReI4gFzB

— Chris Dobey (@Dobey180) December 30, 2024

Gerwyn Price is doubling at 36% across his three matches so far, which is exactly the ratio he produced when taking care of compatriot Jonny Clayton 4-2 in the last 16.

That ratio, while not abysmal, is not title-winning form traditionally speaking. His first nine-dart average for the tournament is 105, though, which is generally going to carve you out plenty of chances. Some wiggle room, if you will.

But he’s not going to get that against Dobey, who is averaging up towards 108 on his first nine darts. So ultimately, this is a clash that will come down to the finishing.

Both are averse to a long slog in this particular stage, too. Price was on both sides of a 5-4 epic in the 2021 and 2022 quarter-finals, while there need be no reminder of Dobey’s epic with Rob Cross twelve months ago.

Quite rightly, the market can barely split them, having already flip-flopped twice. 10/11 the pair seems completely fair and if anyone thinks they can call this one with conviction, the price is there to exploit.

I cannot call the winner, though I sincerely hope from a financial perspective that it is Dobey. In terms of a best bet, the 17/20 on over 7.5 sets (i.e. both players to get at least three) feels like one you’ll do well not to get a run out of.

Two hugely experienced players with good temperament and a huge opportunity in front of them? I’d not be surprised to see it go all the way to sudden death, frankly.

Best bet - Over 7.5 sets - 17/20 (Ladbrokes)

Michael van Gerwen vs Callan Rydz

When Gary Anderson was dumped out in spectacular fashion by Jeffrey De Graaf, opportunity knocked in quarter four and Michael van Gerwen always seemed the man primed to take advantage.

The Green Machine didn’t need a second invitation, did he? Looking more imperious by the game, Monday’s destruction of an impressive De Graaf felt as close to World Championship-winning MVG as we’ve seen for some time.

The scoring, the doubling, the surge through the gears in key moments… it was all there. Even when speaking post-match, the wry smile of the three-time champ told you everything you need to know. He believes number four is imminent.

Standing in his way of a semi-final spot is Callan Rydz, who is enjoying his own spectacular renaissance.

Rydz, who reached this stage three years ago as a relative unknown, has been nothing short of abject for most of the last 24 months (by his own previously set high standards). A combination of mechanical and mental issues have held the Bedlington-born star back hugely.

And while there have been subtle signs of a return to form, as we discussed on the Odds Now YouTube channel a couple of months ago, there’s no way I can claim to have seen this coming.

The Geordie puts his return to form almost solely down to “enjoying life”, with his beloved Grandad happy and healthy and spurring him on. It’s a feel-good story indeed.

Can he continue that fairytale here? I wouldn’t put it past him, though I feel the market has it about right with Rydz around the 2/1 mark and money continuing to trickle in for MVG at 4/9.

You can’t help but be impressed with the way Van Gerwen has been playing thus far and I think the first set is absolutely pivotal in this clash. If Rydz wins it, we could be in for a cracker — if not, Van Gerwen may turn on the style.

I’ve been very impressed by the Dutchman’s scoring in this tournament, namely when he plundered in 10 180s vs Brendan Dolan. He’s going to the lipstick more often than usual, to my eye, which makes him a bet in the maximums market here.

Rydz also loves a 180 and is therefore quite a strong favourite to out-maxi MVG. I think the 13/8 is big enough to take on the three-time champion, however.

There are plenty of game state possibilities here but if it does indeed end up being a fairly comfortable Van Gerwen success, that 180 price could look huge come the final dart.

I’ll also take a point therefore on Van Gerwen to win with the most 180s, which is an even juicier 21/10 with BoyleSports.

Best bet - Michael van Gerwen to hit the most 180s - 13/8 (Unibet)

Peter Wright vs Stephen Bunting

Peter Wright’s win over Luke Humphries was the shock of the tournament thus far to many but after watching the first two sets play out, I thought it had an almost inevitable feel about it.

It’s no secret that Wright is the trickiest man to work out in the sport, with his performance levels capable of flicking between unbelievably poor and unbeatable (and everything in between).

However, the signs were there in his comprehensive “upset” win over Jermaine Wattimena that vintage Snakebite may just be back on the table. Sure enough, as Cool Hand found out to his demise.

Some say the Wright mind games prompted that victory but I’m not so sure. I think it was just two great players playing great darts. Wright hasn’t found that top level for a few months now but perhaps he just needed that Ally Pally stage to get the fire back burning.

Regardless, I think we have to assume now that he will replicate a similar level of performance here against Stephen Bunting, which makes him a bet for me at 6/4.

Stephen Bunting's walk-on hits different 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oDfXNYJMT8

— Sky Sports Darts (@SkySportsDarts) December 31, 2024

In fairness, Bunting has done little wrong in this tournament since the third set of his opening clash with Germany’s Kai Gotthardt. The less said about those opening two stanzas, however, the better.

He was lucky not to go 2-0 behind in that game, with Gotthardt taking the first set and spurning three darts for set two. Yet the Bullet needed no second invitation to step in and swiftly turn that contest on its head.

Since then, victories over both Madars Razma and Luke Woodhouse were achieved with a degree of comfort and you can’t help but will Bunting on, as one of the most likeable and genuine players on the circuit.

It is, though, all about price and if these odds were reversed, I’d possibly be a Bunting backer. I’ve got this game closer to a pick’em, so I have to be with Wright at 6/4.

What I keep telling myself is, there’s no logical reason that Wright won’t reproduce the levels we’ve seen from him in the last week or so against both Humphries and Watimena. And if he does, he has a fantastic chance of winning this game.

He can live with Bunting’s scoring, he should have no issues with the longevity factor of the contest and ultimately, he has the stronger finishing numbers in this tournament.

That’s not to say Bunting is finishing badly — not at all. But when Wright gets in that zone, as he has been on his last two outings, he’s a very tough nut to crack.

Best bet - Peter Wright to beat Stephen Bunting - 6/4 (Sporting Index)

Luke Littler vs Nathan Aspinall

The market makes this the least competitive of the four quarter-finals and it’s tough to disagree, even if that may feel a tad harsh towards the brilliant Nathan Aspinall.

The Stockport star was quite fair in asking what more he has to do to get some credit, having now won 10 straight sets in this tournament with defeats of Leonard Gates (3-1), Andrew Gilding and Ricardo Pietreckzko (both 4-0).

However, we have to be honest when assessing form and though I can’t really fault Aspinall’s efforts, his opponents have all played pretty dreadfully. Gilding was well below his best and what happened to Pietreczko yesterday, dropping to effectively a pub player standard, is anyone’s guess.

The Asp can only beat what is put in front of him but it’s fair to assume Littler is going to be a whole different proposition.

Now an odds-on favourite to lift the title, it’s time to give the teenager some proper credit. Those hoping to get him beat from a betting perspective (me being chief among those) could feasibly point out that he’s handed opportunities to three solid opponents in Ryan Meikle, Ian White and Ryan Joyce. That more established stars would have punished him for those mistakes.

True? Possibly. But what we can and must categorically say about the Nuke is that when the pressure has really been on, when the going has got really tough, he has simply found another gear. And an electric gear at that.

Joyce was taking virtually every chance which came his way on Monday night, forcing things into a seventh and deciding set. So what did Littler do? Well, he just simply stopped giving him chances.

His scoring power is other worldly, reminiscent of a young Michael van Gerwen, while the finish has so far yet to fully desert him at the biggest moments.

I do think he has to improve to win this title but realistically, what suggests he won’t do exactly that? He’s getting better game by game, he doesn’t have to play his old mate Luke Humphries and the crowd are going to be right behind him should he make the final.

As for this particular contest, you probably got the impression already but I think Littler (as a 1/6 favourite should) will simply blow Aspinall away.

Nathan is the best battler around but his game is simply not at that 100 average level currently. Not over nine sets anyway, I don’t think.

I don’t think his grit, combined with the odd Littler flat spot, will let him lose 5-0 but I don’t see him cobbling more than a set or two together in this one to be honest.

Littler is miles in front on their head-to-head record and I reckon effectively dutching the 5-1 and 5-2 correct scores gives us a real chance of more than doubling our money.

Best bets - Littler 5-1 Aspinall correct score + Littler 5-2 Aspinall correct score - 10/3 + 4/1 (Betfred)

Matt Hill's best PDC World Championship darts bets for Monday December 30, 2024

• 2pts - Chris Dobey vs Gerwyn Price over 7.5 sets - 17/20 (Ladbrokes)
• 2pts - Michael van Gerwen most 180s vs Callan Rydz - 13/8 (Unibet)
• 1pt - Michael van Gerwen to beat Callan Rydz and hit most 180s - 21/10 (BoyleSports)
• 2pts - Peter Wright to beat Stephen Bunting - 6/4 (Sporting Index)
• 1pt - Luke Littler 5-1 Nathan Aspinall correct score -  10/3 (general)
• 1pt - Luke Littler 5-2 Nathan Aspinall correct score - 4/1 (general)