PDC World Championship: Semi-finals preview and best bets

(Featured image: Alamy Images)

Written by: Matt Hill

Only four men remain in the 2025 PDC World Championship, with two tantalising semi-finals on the menu at Ally Pally this evening!

Our resident darts expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) is, as always, on hand to walk you through both best-of-13 clashes, alongside his best bets.

PDC World Championship 2025 betting tips

Chris Dobey vs Michael van Gerwen

Chris Dobey and Michael van Gerwen kick off a mouth-watering double header of darts this evening and on a personal note, it's Hollywood who will have my backing.

Dobey is an 11/5 outsider to topple the Green Machine and having copped the antepost 11/2 on him to win quarter three yesterday, attention now rolls onto my outright positions on the Geordie.

Should MVG fall behind, I'll be looking to green things up a bit by backing him in-play. So ideally, anything but a Van Gerwen romp please!

Personal bias aside, Van Gerwen looks a worthy favourite to progress when you consider the pedigree of the pair in matches such as this. It's a first World Championship semi-final for Dobey, while his Dutch opponent has been here on eight previous occasions.

If Dobey is looking for a good omen, the two men to beat him at this stage both went on to lift the trophy (Gary Anderson in 2015 and Rob Cross in 2018). That is where the positivity ends though, with Van Gerwen winning his other six semis — three of which led to him being crowned world champ the following evening.

On bare form, there's not much to separate them. Dobey was slow out of the traps against Gerwyn Price yesterday but then clicked into gear, tearing off with the next four sets and to be honest, it would've been a commanding 5-2 win had it not been for serious finishing line nerves kicking in.

Spurning five match darts and being pegged back to 4-3 would've finished many a man — particularly one with the scar tissue Dobey possesses from last year's well-documented collapse against Cross — but the 34-year-old showed tremendous bottle to dust himself down and win the eighth set in commanding fashion.

You do worry that closing-out issue could rear its head again here, though I'm hopeful he has negotiated that hurdle to a degree with yesterday's gutsy showing.

The relief was painted all over his face at full-time and he'll know he comes into tonight's clash as a quite significant underdog, which I believe plays into a player like Dobey's hands mentally.

Van Gerwen, meanwhile, has been growing into this tournament ominously and was frankly sublime against an equally inspired Callan Rydz.

The scoring and finishing on show from both was a joy to behold and it'll take some toppling as this year's best encounter. Rydz missed two darts to force a deciding set and I genuinely think he could have got over the line if either of those had gone in.

But you have to hand it to MVG, who hit all the right things at the right times and looks as good as we've seen him for a couple of years. He'll have his eyes set on a showdown with Littler, which the entire darting world would surely love to see.

I look at tonight's clash and while I do think Van Gerwen is the likeliest winner, I don't see it being a precession. 

Look at their respective routes to this point. Dobey has played 25 of a possible 29 sets in his four matches (3-1 vs Alex Merkx, 4-2 vs Josh Rock, 4-3 vs Kevin Doets and 5-3 vs Price), while since beating James Hurrell 3-0 in his opener, Van Gerwen has needed 20 of a possible 23 to get past Brendan Dolan (4-2), Jeffrey De Graaf (4-2) and Rydz (5-3).

Four of Dobey's last six exits at Ally Pally have come in deciding sets too and I do think he has the scoring prowess to take this one really deep, even if he can't quite get over the line. Over 9.5 sets looks very generously priced at 7/5 with Ladbrokes and Coral.

I'll also back the Van Gerwen overs line on 180s, which needs him to get 12 or more to cop at 5/6. 

His electric from on the treble 20 bed continued yesterday when blasting in 14 against Rydz across eight sets. If this one is going to go deep, as I expect, then he can easily match that tally.

Finally, both of these players love a bull finish and that could be a fun angle to combine with the other two legs for a recreational Bet Builder.

NAP - Over 9.5 sets - 7/5 (Ladbrokes)

NB - Michael van Gerwen over 11.5 180s - 5/6 (general)

Bet Builder - Over 9.5 sets, MVG over 11.5 180s and both players 1+ bullseye finish - 11/2 (Bet365)

Stephen Bunting vs Luke Littler

Stephen Bunting is the latest man to try and halt the Luke Littler juggernaut as the popular Scouser looks to defy the market, who make him a 17/4 outsider to reach a first PDC World Championship final.

That price says less about Bunting and more about the marvellous Littler, for whom we are rapidly running out of superlatives. The Nuke is just 2/9 to win this game and set up a potential showdown with Michael van Gerwen which would have the feel of an all-time classic final.

For me, though, Bunting has been somewhat disrespected at the current prices. To give the Bullet less than a 20% chance of winning this contest seems unwise given he is undoubtedly Littler's biggest test to date. 

Firstly, I believe there is next to no chance of Bunting being overrawed or star-struck by a clash with the teenage sensation. Having both been regulars at the St Helens Darts Academy, Bunting has been chucking arrows with Littler since he was in primary school and the pair have practiced with each other on hundreds of occasions.

Their two clashes this year (both on the floor) ended in last leg deciders, with Bunting taking a semi-final clash 7-6 and Littler edging a final out 8-7. So on all evidence we have, these two tend to have close encounters.

I also have some question marks remaining over the calibre of Littler's opposition to date. 

Nathan Aspinall was far from poor yesterday but it always felt like a game the Nuke was very comfortable with, playing against someone who describes him as like a "little brother" — and someone who is, very sadly, clearly struggling with dartitis.

I don't think the Asp had the physical or emotional energy to duel with someone of Littler's scoring prowess for 11 sets. Not in his current state. Bunting, however, should be fresh as a daisy really.

He had a brief scare in round two against Kai Gotthardt but since then, has just cruised through proceedings. He dropped just one set against both Madars Razma and Luke Woodhouse, before cantering into a 4-0 lead against Peter Wright last night.

Snakebite did stage a mini-fightback but Bunting closed things out 5-2, meaning he's only dropped five sets in the entire tournament. Littler, meanwhile, has dropped seven and also dodged set darts in a further four (one against Meikle, two against White and one against Aspinall).

I do have to give Littler the ultimate respect here in saying he has gears that nobody else in this tournament appears to possess. When he's really been asked questions, in all of his games, he's turned on the after-burners and powered away. 

Yet that occasionally lapse doubling is bound to offer up Bunting some chances and he has the quality to take them, just as Joyce did.

Even if he can't get over the line, backing the Bullet on a +2.5 set handicap (i.e. to win four sets) looks a real value play at 13/8. I also want to get onside with him to hit at least one bullseye finish in a contest of this length, given how much he enjoys using the middle ring.

Bunting is one of very few players to incorporate the bull into his first dart of combinations like a 121 finish, so he clearly feels very comfortable in that section of the board. He also pinned a 130 finish on the bull last night against Wright en route to winning the second set.

Again, a quote of 13/8 is available with Bet365 is available and I'm more than happy to back it, given the length of game we're talking about.

For a final leg of your Bet Builder, consider adding under 40.5 180s.

I accept that taking on an unders line on maximums in any game involving Littler is a little scary but backed as a single on its own, this selection is a 1/25 chance. Yet by suggesting it will go over 10 sets, it shortens signficantly into a 1/2 offering.

These two would have to be going at a 180 rate even higher than Rydz and Van Gerwen did yesterday for that to land, which, given Bunting only hit three in eight sets against Wright last night, seems fanciful.

NAP - Stephen Bunting +2.5 sets handicap - 13/8 (Quinn Bet)

NB - Stephen Bunting to hit 1+ bullseye finish - 13/8 (Bet365)

Bet Builder - Bunting +2.5 sets, Bunting 1+ bullseye finish + under 40.5 match 180s - 13/2 (Bet365)

Matt Hill's best PDC World Championship darts bets for Thursday January 2, 2025

    • 3pts - Chris Dobey vs Michael van Gerwen over 9.5 sets - 7/5 (Quinn Bet)
    • 2pts - Michael van Gerwen over 11.5 180s vs Chris Dobey - 5/6 (general)
    • 1pt Bet Builder - Over 9.5 sets, MVG over 11.5 180s + 1 bull finish each 11/2 (Bet365) 
    • 3pts - Stephen Bunting +2.5 sets handicap vs Luke Littler - 13/8 (Unibet)
    • 2pts - Stephen Bunting to hit a bullseye finish -  13/8 (general)
    • 1pt Bet Builder - Bunting +2.5 sets, Bunting bullseye finish + under 40.5 match 180s - 13/2 (Bet365) 

    Meet the Author

    Matt Hill


    Head of Content

    Matt has now been operating in the sports content and betting space for the best part of a decade, including extended stints with industry giants Betfred and LiveScore.

    A qualified journalist, he began his career reporting on his beloved Carlisle United FC as a teenager and still follows the Blues avidly to this day, as much as life allows.

    One of the keenest punters around, Matt is never shy of an opinion and builds the bulk of his betting portfolio around antepost football markets and PDC darts events.

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