European Championship 2024: Darts predictions, preview and best bets
Darts heads to Dortmund this week as an elite 32-man field prepare to battle it out for the 2024 European Championship.
The tournament, which is the annual culmination of the popular season-long European Tour, has thrown up some surprise winners over the years including Ross Smith just two years ago.
Our arrows expert Matt Hill (@Matt_Hill93) takes a closer look at the format and makes his predictions for how things might pan out.
The conclusion of last week’s Czech Darts Open finalised our field for this week’s European Championship — with Martin Schindler a surprise No1 seed.
The Wall picked up his first ever PDC senior title in Riesa back in April but proved his homeland victory was no flash in the pan when also lifting the Swiss Darts Trophy only last month.
At 28, Schindler has already experienced the highs and lows of this great sport. It was as recent as 2021 when he lost his professional tour card, before gaining it straight back at Q-School a month later.
Yet his class has always been apparent and keen followers of the tour will appreciate those two titles have long felt within his reach, should he be able to translate an excellent floor game to the big stage.
The next challenge for Schindler is doing it in a major and while there is some debate over where the European Championship ranks in darts’ pecking order, winning this would undoubtedly be another career high for the diminutive German.
The beauty of basing the seedings purely around Euro Tour achievements means we have an unusual balance to the draw, which inevitably plays into the hands of punters.
Schindy can go deep in a Luke-less top half
The most obvious example of this imbalance is the two overwhelming tournament favourites, Luke Humphries (7/2) and Luke Littler (4/1), being drawn in the same half — meaning they will meet in the semi-finals, should both make it that far.
I have gone on record several times about my narrow preference for Humphries over Littler as a betting proposition but realistically, when the two end up meeting, it’s generally a pick ‘em.
So, instead, perhaps we should focus on finding the finalist who will emerge from the top half of the draw instead. Logically, there must be some value on offer here.
So who are the likely contenders? Well, Michael van Gerwen is 8/1. Gerwyn Price is 14/1. Gary Anderson is 16/1. Michael Smith is 22/1. Then it’s 33/1 or bigger for the remainder.
Interestingly, MVG, Smith and Anderson are all in quarter two, while Price sits in quarter one. Some would say that makes the Welshman a bet, though I’d prefer to take him on.
Price is the 5/2 favourite to progress from his section, followed by Ross Smith at 4/1 — though I’ve not been convinced by Smudger’s recent inconsistent performances either.
He’s not quite where he was two years ago at the moment and while it may click for him now he’s back among happy memories, I can pass on him at the price.
Ryan Searle is a 9/2 chance but again, I have my reservations.
Heavy Metal missed seven championship darts to win a first TV title in Switzerland last month and that’s the kind of thing that can really leave a mark on a player.
Instead, I’m going to wager on the man who profited from that collapse in Switzerland — yes, that man Schindler.
At 50/1 in the outright market and 7/1 to progress through this quarter, I think he’s a cracking bet. He ticks so many boxes for me.
His form over the last three months has been extremely strong. He’s won titles this year, meaning he has that confidence to get the job done in big clashes. And most crucially of all, he’s playing in front of a home crowd.
I have long felt we see the best of Schindy in Germany and when you add all those factors in with a kind looking draw, I simply have to chuck a few quid in his direction.
De Decker looks disrespected at 50/1
If I was to throw a dart at the bottom half too, it wouldn’t be at Littler or Humphries. Yes, they are by far the likeliest protagonists but their prices are abject given their probable routes to glory.
One man whose price seems inflated, on the other hand, is the sport’s most recent major winner in Mike De Decker.
It was only two weeks ago that the Real Deal was seeing off Humphries 6-4 in an all-time Grand Prix final, springing a 150/1 surprise in the process — but as discussed on our darts podcast recently, that was no fluke.
The Belgian has always had the talent but seemed to lack the confidence to bring his best game into the majors. However, like we’ve seen with so many before him, once the penny drops, it can easily be a different story.
Think Michael Smith. Think Jonny Clayton. Think Luke Humphries. Having to wait a while for your major breakthrough is no bad thing and can often spark a purple patch immediately after.
De Decker certainly still looked in rude health when cruising to the quarter finals of the Czech Darts Open last weekend with averages of 104, 102 and 104.
He was eventually halted by Humphries, who exacted some revenge from Leicester with a 6-2 success, though I don’t think De Decker lost much in defeat there.
I think he’ll have a bit too much for Josh Rock in his opener on recent form and after that, a second round tie with Danny Noppert or Joe Cullen doesn’t strike fear into the heart either.
If De Decker is still knocking about come the quarter finals, a 50/1 ticket is going to feel huge and with that logic applied, I’ve taken a swing in the outright market.
Van Veen too big for another European run
A quick word too for Gian van Veen, who I do think is simply too big to cause a shock in the stacked quarter two.
Sometimes you just have to play the price and this young Dutch ace is far too good to be an 18/1 outsider, even if there are plenty of big names knocking about.
He reached the semi-finals in Dortmund last year, knocking out his countryman MVG along the way, and while I appreciate a repeat looks a tall order, I do think he is capable.
His first round exit in the World Grand Prix is nothing to worry about given Ross Smith averaged north of a ton (a remarkable feat in the double-in format), while his performances on the Euro Tour have generally been up to his usual standards.
He’s favourite to get the better of Ritchie Edhouse in his opener and beyond that, I’m quite certain neither Dave Chisnall or Michael Smith would relish playing him in round two.
Get GVV on side in the quarter betting at 18/1 — and have a small outright flyer at 80s too just in case.
Matt’s European Championship best bets
Martin Schindler to win the European Championship - 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Mike De Decker to win the European Championship - 50/1 (Ladbrokes)
Gian van Veen to win the European Championship - 80/1 (Bet365)
Martin Schindler to win quarter 1 - 7/1 (SkyBet)
Gian van Veen to win quarter 2 - 18/1 (SkyBet)