Around The Clock: De Decker 30/1 for Worlds after showing he’s the Real Deal

Every Monday, Odds Now's resident darts guru Matt Hill is on hand to get you up to speed with all the key stories and betting angles in planet darts in his exclusive column, Around The Clock.

This week, Matt takes stock after a huge surprise at the World Grand Prix, previews a busy week of floor and Euro Tour action and gives three best bets for the week ahead.

Magic Mike scorches Cool Hand in Grand Prix classic

A truly bonkers week at the World Grand Prix ended in fitting fashion last night as Mike De Decker produced a career-best performance to stun Luke Humphries and lift his first major title.

The dramatic 6-4 win, which saw the Belgian race into a 4-1 lead before being pinned back to 4-4 and then kicking on again, has parachuted him up to 25th in the world rankings with plenty of scope for rising higher in the coming weeks.

De Decker was a 150/1 chance for glory at the start of the week but constantly defied the odds, surviving match darts against Damon Heta in round one before recording remarkable back-to-back whitewash wins over legendary duo Gary Anderson and James Wade. 

A comfortable semi-final defeat of his countryman Dimitri Van den Bergh was still not enough to convince punters he could topple world champ Humphries in the final, going off a 5/1 outsider in the showpiece.

But while Cool Hand struggled to replicate the immaculate arrows he had thrown 24 hours earlier against Ryan Joyce, De Decker grasped his opportunity and raced into a 4-1 lead — though the job was not done.

Humphries was typically dogged when on the cusp of defeat, summoning earth-shattering 149 and 152 checkouts to turn set six on its head and within the blink of an eye, he was level at 4-4.

Yet with the writing seemingly on the wall, the Belgian produced one more act of defiance. A ballsy checkout of 80 sealed him set nine and after letting out some emotion, he regained his marvellous composure to close it out with a 180 and 55 in two darts.

The MOMENT Mike De Decker secured his title 👏 pic.twitter.com/6MlJolY4DQ

— Sky Sports Darts (@SkySportsDarts) October 13, 2024

I’d say we learned plenty about De Decker this week but to be honest, I think Mike learnt plenty about himself. 

I’m not sure he truly had that belief he could go all the way, probably until he smashed Anderson in round two. From that point on, he was so assured in everything he did.

Most impressive of all for me was the way he reacted to moments of adversity, particularly in the final. 

To say someone showing nerves and missing doubles is “bottling it” always feels incredibly harsh. Nerves are natural and so are misses — but it’s how you recover from those moments which really counts.

To be pinned back to 4-4 by the world’s best and hold it together in the final two sets shows how special De Decker is and there’s no reason he can’t kick on massively from here.

Punters certainly think so. The Real Deal is now a top price of 30/1 (Star Sports) to be crowned world champion in 12 weeks’ time, having been a 200/1 poke a week ago. 

Of course, the Worlds are a whole different kettle of fish but having a new found confidence, a new legion of fans and a new top 32 spot (and with it, seeding at Ally Pally), stranger things have happened.

Anyway, in the short term, he’s booked himself a spot at the Grand Slam of Darts. And who would rule him out of another deep run in Wolverhampton?

No rest for the wicked

We all know the business-end of the darts season isn’t big on blank days, meaning fans don’t have long to wait until the world’s best are back at the oche.

Today marks precisely one day of rest before a double-header of Players Championship action in Wigan across Tuesday and Wednesday — events 27 and 28 of a total 30.

As well as the prize money on offer, these final floor events also open doors to more premier events. As it stands, Chris Dobey and Damon Heta are both likely to seal a place at next month’s Grand Slam as a result of their Pro Tour success, though there are other variables at play. 

If any player not already qualified can win two of the last four events, that should save them a trip to the dreaded Tour Card Qualifier too. 

Meanwhile, the Players Championship Finals in Minehead — the annual precursor for the Worlds — sees the Pro Tour’s top 64 performers from 2024 take part but there are still a couple of big names in danger of missing out.

None more so than Nathan Aspinall, who sits exactly 64th on that qualification list as things stand having missed quite a few events through rest and injury.

Mervyn King, Ricardo Pietreckzo, Steve Beaton, Jose De Sousa, Keane Barry and Simon Whitlock are among the more prominent names needing a deep run in the last four events to battle their way back into a qualifying berth.

Then on Friday, we bring the curtain down on another majestic Euro Tour season with the Czech Darts Open in Prague.

Peter Wright is the defending champion having beat Dave Chisnall in last year’s final but like the Pro Tour events, there is an interesting sub-plot in terms of the final European Championship qualification spots.

Players like Dirk van Duijvenbode and Andrew Gilding will be sweating having failed to qualify for Prague, with a host of entrants hoping to usurp them at the death.

Cammy Menzies and Callan Rydz could sneak in with a solitary win. Two or three victories are probably needed for the likes of Brendan Dolan, Dimitri Van den Bergh and Ryan Joyce, while even the likes of Kevin Doets and Niels Zonneveld have an outside shot — though they’d need a career-best effort.

Of those mentioned, I’m most interested in Joyce. Firstly, whether he turns up at all having opened up on his crippling fear of flying. Then, if he does, whether he can build on his sublime Grand Prix run and go deep and force his way into another big TV event.

At this point of the season, every win is a chance to build confidence ahead of some huge events so I’ll be watching Sunday’s latter stages with a keen eye.

Three betting picks for the week ahead…

As I write, early prices are up for tomorrow’s Pro Tour and while a lot can change over a 24-hour period, I’m immediately drawn to Bet365’s quotes for Wessel Nijman (50/1) and Connor Scutt (200/1).

Both are Development Tour products who have shown they are more than capable of mixing it with the best. Nijman won an event earlier this month and should be closer to 25/1 on current form, while Scutt was a runner-up to Gary Anderson in September and is consistently running deep on the floor. He should be less than half that price, regardless of who turns up.

Add in the inevitable absentees from the top-tier players which will be announced a few hours before the off and you’ve got yourself two serious value bets there. 

The Euro Tour is a harder one to pick this far in advance, with the draw not having been made. Saying that, I’m happy to take a chance on quotes of 50/1 about Nathan Aspinall.

It is one of darts’ biggest quirks for me that the Asp, a UK Open winner, Matchplay winner and Premier League finalist, has yet to win a Euro Tour event in his decorated career.

Last year, he made four quarter-finals and the final of the German Darts Grand Prix, where he lost to good friend Michael Smith 8-5, before a 2024 campaign which has been disrupted by injury.

However, I was pleasantly surprised by how well the Stockport star has looked since coming back from that latest setback. He seems in a great place mentally and could’ve gone a lot deeper in the World Grand Prix had he converted one of his three match darts against Joyce in round two.

All things considered, the stars could be aligning for a final event triumph and I’ll take my chance early with the price seemingly holding a bit of juice. Fingers crossed for a reasonable draw!