Jai Opetaia vs Mairis Briedis: Betting Odds & Prediction
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Cruiserweights Jai Opetaia and Mairis Briedis meet for a second time with the vacant IBF title on the line on Saturday.
The pair initially fought in July 2022 when Opetaia secured a shock unanimous decision win to claim the IBF belt in his home country of Australia.
The rematch takes place on the undercard of the upcoming undisputed heavyweight title fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk.
Tale of the Tape
Opetaia’s stock has risen significantly since his dominant showing over Briedis almost two years ago.
The fight saw him suffer a fractured jaw which kept the Australian out of action for 14 months, but subsequent demolition victories over Jordan Thompson and Ellis Zorro have only enhanced his reputation on the cruiserweight scene.
It was not who he defeated that raised eyebrows but more the manner in which he went about his business. Thompson was floored twice before he was saved from further punishment, while a huge straight left out of the southpaw stance laid Zorro out inside a round back in December.
Like Joe Cordina, who also fights on the card, Opetaia (24-0, 19KOs) was however stripped of his IBF cruiserweight title ahead of the Zorro bout due to his failure to defend against mandatory challenger Briedis. This came despite Briedis being injured at the time.
The Latvian has previously held the IBF, WBO and WBC titles at cruiserweight. His only losses have came against Opetaia and former undisputed champion Usyk, who fights in the main event.
Briedis (28-2, 20KOs) boasts impressive wins over the likes of Marco Huck, Krzysztof Glowacki and Yuniel Dorticos at cruiserweight, but has not fought since the loss to Opetaia almost two years ago.
Prediction
Opetaia rightly enters a firm favourite on the moneyline (2/11) and comes into the fight with five stoppage wins in his last six. The only exception was his unanimous decision win over Briedis in their first fight.
However, the Australian suffered a double fracture of his jaw in the second rout of that bout, and was remarkably able to push through to secure the biggest win of his career. Had the injury not occurred, the question remains whether he’d have been able to push on and further dent the Latvian to earn a stoppage.
Opetaia is now back to full health and in the form of his life. A win this weekend would setup huge unifications will the fellow champions in his division, and this time he comes up against a Briedis who hasn’t fought in nearly two years.
The latter’s inactivity, coupled with the ruthless streak shown by the Australian in recent fights, makes an Opetaia stoppage the sensible pick here.